Is artificial going to displace humans? I hear this concern a lot and this article in Mother Jones does a good job articulating the reality of robot colleagues.
I realize now that a lot of these projections about the rapid acceleration of computer learning rely on Moore’s Law – the historically-true law that computing power (in the original case, transistors) double about every two years). However, Moore’s Law may eventually break down, and outcomes of advancement don’t always match our expectation. For instance, the rise of the computer age led many to assume that paper would soon be phased out… yet we are using more of it than ever.
The most interesting section of this article was the markers we should look for if AI really is taking our jobs:
- A steady decline in the share of the population that’s employed
- Fewer job openings than in the past
- Middle-class incomes flatten in a race to the bottom
- Corporations stockpile more cash and invest less in new products and factories
- Labor’s share of national income decline and capital’s share rise
And… hmm. A few markers there but 2019 is looking a bit better than 2013 when this article was published.